US, Israel ‘masterminding’ weapons supplies to ‘terrorists’ in Syria

An investigative reporter who claimed to have discovered a covert scheme “masterminded” by the US, Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE to supply weapons to Daesh and Al-Qaeda terrorist groups under the watch of the CIA and NATO, has been sacked by her employers for what she describes as “telling the truth about weapons supplies to terrorists”. Bulgarian journalist Dilyana Gaytandzhiev claims she was dismissed after being interrogated by security forces following her report that “at least 350 diplomatic …flights transported weapons for war conflicts across the world over the last three years”. Her bombshell report in July for the Trud newspaper alleged that “the state aircraft of Azerbaijan carried on board tens of tonnes of heavy weapons and ammunition headed […]

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One Trader’s “Ultimate Guide To Navigating The Equity Markets”

This remains a market in which traders are, for lack of a better word, “confused” (another good word is “paralyzed” as we observed one month ago).

For the latest confirmation of this, look no further than Bloomberg’s macro commentator (and former hedge fund manager) Richard Breslow, who in his latest macro note admits that “truth be told, there are very few of us who know what’s going on with the equities markets.” The other problem is that despite all the “fundamental analysis, valuations, metrics and the like” by financial professionals, the market appears to move in jagged discontinuities, with little logic or rationale, immune to the best financial “hot takes.” 

Inevitably, Breslow writes, “the market doesn’t carry through as promised and it’s inevitably made clear that it has nothing to do with that day’s investing thesis but some nefarious and exogenous influence.”

Almost, as if, it’s all in the hands of central bankers… Or maybe not that nefarious, and risk prices simply act as they (illogically) would in a robot-eat-robot, or perhaps algo-eat-algo, world (a perverse cannibalization that has been puzzling the FT recently).

The good news, is that Breslow believes he may have stumbled on the solution to everyone’s problem: how to trade this painfully rangebound, seemingly irrational market:

So put all this aside and concern yourself with how each equity market is behaving around its 21- and 55-day moving averages. Almost every index respects these indicators and traders should love the opportunities presented when the two lines cross. All the words you hear mean little if you’ve not been given the sign.

The P&L punchline: “Risk off is when the 21-dma crosses lower versus the 55-dma. That’s when you know you should be scared. When the opposite occurs, feel free to go back to ignoring the front page news.

While Breslow highlights just how predictably responsive to this 21/55 narrative both the EURUSD and USDJPY have been the big test will be ES, which while stuck in a tight range, may be about to break out:

Two weeks of a lot of noise seemingly signifying nothing has caused the 21 to inch stealthily lower and it hovers, as we speak, 5 points above the 55. If, not when, they cross it’s likely that you’ll have a clearer sense of what to do. Nota bene, close but no cigar, doesn’t score points in this particular game.

Will investing, and trading, indeed be as simple as Breslow makes it appear? The answer should emerge in just a few days when the S&P’s 21- and 55-DMA cross. The result could be violent.

* * *

Richard Breslow’s full note below:

Truth be told, there are very few of us who know what’s going on with the equities markets. On any given day, they’re going to collapse, never go down again or must be sold or bought on any strength or weakness, as the case may be. And, like congress, many, if not most, people hate the group as a class (index) but love their personal representative (sure winner). The simple truth is that this asset class’s fate is being clouded by the fact that the question is being framed all wrong. And as scientists of the market we should know better than to forecast (kind choice of words) market direction while ignoring the maxim, “garbage in, garbage out.” 

 

Day in and day out we’re inundated with analyses of valuations, metrics and the like. We get our regular instant armchair take on the latest geo-political outrage. After all, who understands this stuff better than foreign exchange salesmen? And a lot of time we’re just simply exhorted to love or hate a given bourse based on the perceived charisma or odiousness of the head of state.

 

Macron’s dreamy, so of course after he rewrites the utterly entrenched labor laws of France, overhauls the economy into a hotbed of innovation, he will turn his full attention to European-wide structural problems. Rumor has it, he can also make an incredible vegetarian foie gras. How can you not be optimistic about everything Europe? Other leaders must be given no quarter on any issue as a matter of principle. I mention this only because if you look at a chart of the euro versus the dollar, yesterday’s spike and subsequent failure above 1.20 looks distinctly like a middle-finger pattern.

 

Inevitably, the market doesn’t carry through as promised and it’s inevitably made clear that it has nothing to do with that day’s investing thesis but some nefarious and exogenous influence.

 

So put all this aside and concern yourself with how each equity market is behaving around its 21- and 55-day moving averages. Almost every index respects these indicators and traders should love the opportunities presented when the two lines cross. All the words you hear mean little if you’ve not been given the sign.

 

Risk off is when the 21-dma crosses lower versus the 55-dma. That’s when you know you should be scared. When the opposite occurs, feel free to go back to ignoring the front page news.

 

The euro has been on a tear since April. How do you know when it starts to be a relative performance issue for European stocks? The end of June, just as soon as the technical signal flashed.

 

Is USD/JPY weakness becoming a problem for Japan? Let’s see, but be aware the lines crossed yesterday.

 

Which sets up a really interesting question. The one you all actually care about. The S&P 500 looks like it’s stuck in a tight range. Where it goes nobody knows. Follow the lines. Two weeks of a lot of noise seemingly signifying nothing has caused the 21 to inch stealthily lower and it hovers, as we speak, 5 points above the 55.

 

If, not when, they cross it’s likely that you’ll have a clearer sense of what to do. Nota bene, close but no cigar, doesn’t score points in this particular game.

 

Don’t you wish all of life was this easy?

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Army Commander: Lebanon is Daesh free

Lebanon today announced the end of its military operation to oust Daesh from along its border with Syria. Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun officially declared the end of the “Dawn of the Outskirts” operation which began ten days ago. “After you completed the Dawn of the Outskirts operation, in which you have achieved a decisive victory on terrorism by expelling it from the towns of Ras Baalbek and Qaa, this dear region belongs to the nation, which has been washed with the blood of your comrades, the martyrs who were killed, and those wounded, and with the sweat which fell from your foreheads.” “In your name, I extend my deepest condolences to the members of their families and […]

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Israel questions PM’s billionaire friend over corruption charges

Israeli police are to fly to London today to question billionaire businessman Len Blavatnik in relation to corruption charges facing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to Haaretz. The Soviet-born media investor will primarily be questioned as to whether Netanyahu was involved in the sale of a television channel in 2015 to Arnon Mozes, publisher of Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, as part of “Case 2000”. It is alleged that Netanyahu tried to negotiate a deal with Mozes, offering legislation that would impede the activities of Mozes’ rival paper, Israel Hayom, in return for more favourable media coverage of the prime minister and his policies. Police further suspect that in return for curbing Israel Hayom, Mozes offered to hire journalists recommended […]

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Oil Markets React Stoically To Strong Crude Inventory Draw

Amid the shutdown of 20 percent of U.S. refining capacity caused by Hurricane Harvey and the pending shutdown of more refineries as the storm moves on to Louisiana, the EIA’s latest weekly inventory report may limit the fall in WTI prices. The authority reported a draw of 5.4 million barrels for the week ending August 25, a day after the American Petroleum Institute estimated these inventories had fallen by 5.78 million barrels in the period. Analysts had expected a decline of 1.75 million barrels. Despite the almost uninterrupted string…

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Husky lets contract for West White Rose platform off Newfoundland and Labrador

Husky Energy Inc. has let an engineering, procurement, construction,
and installation contract to TechnipFMC for the connection of the West
White Rose platform offshore Newfoundland and Labrador with the SeaRose
floating production, storage, and off…

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Israel detains Palestinian band over song praising Halamish attacker

Israeli forces detained a popular Palestinian wedding singer and his band members during predawn raids in the central occupied West Bank district of Ramallah today, reportedly over a video released by the group applauding Omar Al-Abed, who has been indicted for carrying out a deadly stabbing attack in July that left three Israeli settlers dead. Local sources in Beit Rima said Israeli forces raided the village overnight and detained the singer, Muhammad Barghouthi, and his band’s organist Naji Rimawi. Israeli forces also raided the nearby village of Kafr Ein and detained the band’s audio engineer Nazzal Barghouthi. An Israeli army spokesperson confirmed only one detention in Beit Rima, and one in Kafr Ein. She added that one detention was also […]

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Total Boosts North Sea Oil Output With New Startup

Total SA will be adding production capacity of up to 56,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (boed) to its North Sea production after it started up production from the Edradour & Glenlivet gas and condensate fields in the West of Shetland area, the French oil and gas giant said on Wednesday. The new start-up fields are located close to the Laggan-Tormore fields that came online in February 2016. “We have completed this project ahead of schedule and 30% under the initial budget”, Arnaud Breuillac, President Exploration & Production,…

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